NFL 2026 game and prop engine
NFL models 2026 regular-season points scored and allowed per game, blended with full-season 2025 priors using prior-equivalent-game shrinkage. Sources: 2026 offense, 2026 defense, 2025 offense, 2025 defense. Snapshot collected October 22, 2026; 5–6 games per team in current-year records. Simulates random touchdowns, field goals, overtime and some score-modifier events. It is NOT play-by-play, drive-by-drive NFL simulation or a calibrated forecasting model. Manual weather, injuries, travel, and turnover modifiers are provisional and can double-count if applied carelessly. Props are separate distributions driven by user-supplied mean/variance rather than individual player feeds.
Risk and data honesty: 1,000,000 samples reduce sampling noise, not systematic forecasting error. No live sportsbook feed, automatic weather, injury or play-by-play data, real-time updates, betting guarantees or independent calibration are included. NFL 2026 data are historical from the published snapshot, not automatically refreshed.
NBA 2026–27 engine
What the current version actually calculates
Matchup expected scoring. Teams are modeled using historical offense and opponent defensive efficiency, relative to league average, then adjusted for projected pace, home-court advantage, schedule/rest, travel/time-zone exposure, weather-related travel disruption, altitude, and explicit lineup availability estimates.
Simulation engine. Reproducible seeded Monte Carlo draws use normal approximations for total points and point margin, with separate editable variance assumptions, whole-number final scores and simplified overtime handling. This is a game-score distribution model, not a real possession-by-possession simulator. Repeating a million draws mainly reduces Monte Carlo sampling error.
Player prop engine. Estimated minute distributions scale per-36 rates. Count production uses an overdispersed approximation with stat-specific volatility. It does not simulate shot location, real defensive assignments or coordinated teammate usage.
Market comparison. Moneyline and -110 assumptions are entered manually. American prices are converted to break-even probabilities. Expected value assumes that the model probability is correctly calibrated; that has not been demonstrated. Market anchoring (when enabled with spread and total) blends market consensus into projected scores, reducing independence from the line being evaluated.
Data provenance. Default 30-team metrics are transcribed from CraftedNBA 2025–26 team stats (accessed October 22, 2026). NBA regular-season schedule: NBA official announcement. Rest/travel motivation is informed by published literature, including Charest et al. (2021); actual adjustment magnitudes are engineering placeholders pending backtesting.
What a research-grade V2 needs
Data connectors: licensed or permitted 2026–27 team logs, current player rosters, injury/availability reports, projected lineups and minutes, latest spread/total/ML and prop odds with timestamps, venue and travel schedule. Live data should be cached server-side; never put paid API keys into public frontend code.
More sophisticated mechanics: true possession-level transition probabilities (half-court, pick-and-roll, spot-up, isolation, cut and putback), shooter zones, lineup combinations, matchup-specific shot defenses, foul rates, rebounding and turnover rates, substitution patterns, rotation optimization, correlated team and player outcomes, referee crew effects and shot quality. Include at least 100 feature candidates only after leakage and multicollinearity checks.
Calibration: time-ordered 2022–26 backtesting, 2026–27 rolling updates, walk-forward validation, log loss/Brier scores, calibration curves, CLV, spread/total MAE, holdout error, closing-line benchmarks, sensitivity intervals, feature ablation and uncertainty from injuries/lineup status. Do not claim a betting advantage until validated out of sample.
Multi-user: This beta creates reproducible scenario links and local saves. Shared accounts, synchronized history, joint editing and automatic daily schedules require a backend and authentication.
Not financial advice or a guarantee of profitable bets. Sportsbook markets are highly competitive; model errors overwhelm Monte Carlo counting error.